Tue. Dec 1st, 2020

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Why Jets are underdogs despite Falcons’ ugly…

3 min read
Why Jets are underdogs despite Falcons' ugly...

While there was plenty of enthusiasm about individual performances from the Jets in last week’s preseason opener against the Giants, Sam Darnold and company still find themselves as market underdogs Thursday night to an opponent that hasn’t won an exhibition game since 2016.

The Jets visit Atlanta for a 7:30 kickoff. The Falcons have failed to cover 12 straight preseason outings, beating the market in their first two exhibitions of 2016, but not cashing a ticket since.

Why aren’t sharps pounding the Jets? New York is getting points from a team that clearly isn’t trying to win. That should be the easiest pick on the board! Among the reasons:

  • Sharps are aware of trends, but go much deeper when making bets.
  • Atlanta had a head start this preseason because of an invite to the Hall of Fame Game. Sharps respect the power of that extra week of preparation. Of the two offenses, Atlanta should have better timing and execution.
  • Atlanta easily could be 2-0 straight up and ATS this preseason. A year ago, Atlanta was continually blasted … losing by a cumulative 96-27. This season’s collection has been much more competitive. It took fluke touchdowns in the final moments of losses to Denver and Miami to flip the payout. Atlanta (+2¹/₂) was tied with Denver at halftime, and led 10-7 at the two-minute warning. Atlanta (+4) led Miami at halftime and was tied 27-all at the two-minute warning.
  • The Jets’ defense struggled badly versus the Giants last week, allowing 414 yards and 7.4 yards per play. The G-Men had touchdown drives of 79, 81, and 86 yards, and a field-goal drive of 70 yards. Daniel Jones, Kyle Lauletta and Alex Tanney combined to average better than 10 yards per pass on 36 throws while only getting sacked once. Sharps don’t back soft defenses at short prices on the road.

While that 0-12 ATS trend for the Falcons can’t be ignored, Atlanta isn’t an auto-fade because of those other factors.

An issue for bettors to consider as they watch Jets-Falcons: Were last week’s defensive woes for the Jets a red-flag warning for the regular season?

It’s way to early to draw that conclusion. But, bettors should remember that new head coach Adam Gase is a former offensive coordinator who was brought in to build Sam Darnold into a dynamo. It’s not uncommon for coaching “specialists” to build “half a team.” Former offensive coordinators are prone to mastermind squads with high-octane offenses whose defenses wear down in shootouts. Former defensive coordinators create rosters with menacing high-impact defenses whose offenses spend the day punting.

Under Todd Bowles, the Jets ranked 25th in total defense last season with 380.4 yards allowed per game. They replaced Bowles with the head coach of the team that finished 28th with 391.1 — though many Jets fans are optimistic that new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will have a big, positive impact.


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